PREVIEW: UFC 146 - Dos Santos vs. Mir - Noah Weber's Blog

Arena Blog Dynasty Scores Sign Up ☰

Noah Weber's Blog

PREVIEW: UFC 146 - Dos Santos vs. Mir Stuck

Posted on May 24, 2012 at 04:48 PM.

(1)

The UFC Heavyweight Championship is on the line at UFC 146 this Saturday, as Junior Dos Santos looks to defend his belt against two-time former champion Frank Mir.

While the main event is sure to be an exhilarating display of Mixed Martial Arts at the highest level, the rest of the fight card has some serious potential as well. All of the fights on the PPV portion of the event will feature heavyweights, while the preliminary card (free on FX) boasts some intriguing matchups from other divisions.

Here is a look at three of this Saturday�s most interesting pairings, complete with my predictions as to how they will end up:

1. Stefan Struve (23-5) vs. Lavar Johnson (17-5)

Just three weeks ago, Lavar Johnson put on an explosive performance in front of a national television audience at UFC on FOX: Diaz vs. Miller. In that fight, Johnson survived an early scare on the ground against veteran kickboxer Pat Barry, only to come back with a devastating TKO victory that earned him Knockout of the Night honors and left many viewers� jaws unhinged. After an unfortunate training injury knocked fan-favorite gunslinger Mark Hunt out of competition, Johnson quickly jumped at the opportunity to replace Hunt against the tallest man in the UFC, 24 year-old Dutch kickboxer, Stefan Struve.

Johnson is likely to have his hands full in Struve, as the 6-foot-11 behemoth has unparalleled range and extremely effective technique. In addition to being a decorated kickboxer, Struve has a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu purple belt, and his fifteen submission victories are evidence that he knows how to use it. Although he has gone to a decision only once in his career, Struve has been on the losing end of some spectacular stoppages (including TKO losses to fellow UFC 146ers Roy Nelson and Junior Dos Santos), suggesting Johnson might have a chance if he can keep it on the feet.

PREDICTION: Seeing as these two fighters have gone to a decision only once in their combined careers, I don�t see this fight making it a full three rounds. Johnson tags Struve a few times early, but eventually succumbs to the Dutchman�s superior ground game and is forced to tap to a submission.

STRUVE VIA SUBMISSION (ROUND2)

2. Cain Velasquez (9-1) vs. Antonio �Big Foot� Silva (16-3)

In seems like just yesterday that Cain Velasquez was the baddest man on the planet. After demolishing the legendary Brock Lesnar to claim the heavyweight title at UFC 121, Velasquez was 9-0 and gave no indications of slowing down. That is, until he met Junior dos Santos at UFC on FOX 1. In the UFC�s first nationally televised event, Velasquez caught a first-round uppercut from the current champion, and woke up to find his belt around another man�s waist. Now, the aggressive boxer/wrestler must work his way back up to the top of the heavyweight mountain, and the man standing in his way is the formidable Antonio �Big Foot� Silva.

Silva is a true mixed martial artist, holding black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Judo, and Karate. His greatest in-cage accomplishment is defeating Fedor Emelianenko, a man who many refer to as the greatest fighter of all time. With his most recent loss coming to recently crowned Strikeforce Heavyweight Champion Daniel Cormier, Silva�s stock has only gone up in the aftermath of Cormier�s impressive win in his Strikeforce Heavyweight Championship fight against Josh Barnet last Saturday.

PREDICTION: While Silva has some notable wins on his resume, Velasquez is simply too much for him to handle. Cain�s standup is markedly better, while his ground game is only marginally worse. Velasquez quickly pounces on the big Brazilian, finishing him off for an early TKO.

VELASQUEZ VIA TKO (ROUND 1)

3. Junior dos Santos (14-1) vs. Frank Mir (16-5)

Junior dos Santos looks to keep the momentum going after his aforementioned knockout of Cain Velasquez earned him the heavyweight crown last November. For dos Santos, the strength of his game is in his elite level boxing, which has earned him three Knockout of the Night awards in his last 8 fights. JDS also has a brown belt Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game to compliment his exceptional standup, which will come in very handy against the submission specialist in his next opponent, Frank Mir.

Mir has been the UFC heavyweight champion on two prior occasions, and is known for having some of the most vicious submissions in the sport. Most recently, Mir earned his second Submission of the Year award by demolishing the shoulder of legendary grappler Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera with a gut-wrenching kimura lock. Prior to that, Mir caused Brock Lesnar to offer one of the most enthusiastic tapouts of all-time with a crippling kneebar, and caused veteran referee Herb Dean to literally scream �OH, S�T!� by visibly snapping Tim Sylvia�s arm. Mir�s jiu-jitsu is technical and devastating, and he will have to rely on it if he has any chance of winning the fight.

PREDICTION: Dos Santos believes that Mir�s only chance is if the fight stays on the mat. Mir believes dos Santos�s only chance is if the fight stays on the feet. I�m inclined to agree with both men. That being said, I think it will be easier for dos Santos to get back up than it will be for Mir to take him down, and I think dos Santos will exploit his superior striking ability and ultimately put Mir away.

DOS SANTOS VIA TKO (ROUND 3)

So that�s my take on the upcoming event. Tune in Saturday to find out just how wrong I will be�

Who do YOU think will win this Saturday? Junior dos Santos or Frank Mir?

Comments

# 1 Joe Chacon @ Jun 27

Just went back and realized you nailed each of these predictions. You even had the correct round for the Velasquez/Silva fight. I think I'm 0-15 with my predictions.